Valgforskning

Her finner du rapporter fra valgundersøkelser, publikasjoner med mer.

Climate concern and environmental protection

Anne Therese Gullberg and Bernt Aardal: «Is climate change mitigation compatible with environmental protection? Exploring voter attitudes as expressed through “old” and “new” politics in Norway (Environmental Policy and Governance, 2018)

Abstract:
The international literature on public attitudes finds that attitudes to climate change are closely related to attitudes to environmental protection. We ask whether this conclusion also holds for Norway. Our starting point is the political science literature on “old” versus “new” politics, old politics being defined in socio‐economic left or right terms and new politics being defined in accordance with an authoritarian or libertarian dimension in which environmental protection plays an important role. Based on these two axes, Herbert Kitschelt finds a new axis—a diagonal—combining old and new divides. According to Kitschelt, voters with traditional environmental attitudes have leftist and libertarian values, while voters favouring economic growth have rightist and authoritarian values.
Using Norwegian data, we compare voters who favour traditional environmental protection and take climate change seriously with voters who only take climate change seriously. We expect that if climate change is perceived as one of many environmental threats, then the two voter groups are similar. We find that half of the voters see climate change as a big problem. Two thirds of these voters are in favour of environmental protection. However, the last third of these voters who take climate change seriously do not want greater environmental protection. Moreover, we find interesting differences between these groups. Those in the latter group have leftist and libertarian values, whereas climate‐only voters have rightist and authoritarian values. Thus the two groups of voters are dissimilar. Interestingly, this pattern corresponds to alignments along Kitschelt’s new diagonal axis for party competition.

Kommentar/kronikk i Dagens Næringsliv

The 2017 Norwegian election (Bernt Aardal & Johannes Bergh)

Although the Storting election of 11 September 2017 reduced the number of seats backing the incumbent conservative government, it still gave the two governing parties and their supporting centre-right parties a parliamentary majority. Thus, Prime Minister Solberg’s premiership will continue after the election. In the previous period, the government could secure a parliamentary majority with either of the two centrist parties; the Liberal Party or the Christian Democrats. After the 2017 election, they will need the support of both parties to secure a majority, unless they can get help from one or more of the centre-left opposition parties. When Solberg formed her government back in 2013, the populist right-wing Progress Party entered government for the first time. Even Progress Party leaders feared that they would lose support from anti-establishment voters. Poor turnout at the 2015 local election did not bode well.1 However, the Progress Party did far better in the 2017 national elections and lost only 1.1 percentage points and two seats compared with the 2013 election. A major success factor for the Progress Party was the attention given to immigration issues during the election campaign (see below). At the previous election, in 2013, the Green Party won a seat for the first time, increasing the number of parties in parliament from seven to eight.2 In 2017, the far-left Red Party increased the number of parties from eight to nine.3 Despite the re-election of the incumbent government, the election signalled a shift to the left, even to the left of the Labour Party. (West European Politics, vol.4, No. 5: 1208-1216)

Read the full article

Velgervandringer 2013-2017

De foreløpige resultatene fra valgundersøkelsen 2017 bygger på to datakilder. Den første er en valgkampundersøkelse hvor vi i juni 2017 spurte velgerne om hva de stemte ved stortingsvalget i 2013, og så etter valget spurte hva de stemte i 2017. Denne delen består av 1509 personer. I tillegg har vi et utvalg på 517 personer fra den ordinære valgundersøkelsen. Disse ble også intervjuet i 2013, og utgjør et panel der opplysningene om stemmegivning ved valget i 2013 er hentet fra undersøkelsen i 2013. Notatet er skrevet av Bernt Aardal og Johannes Bergh.

Les notat

 

60 år med valgforskning – hva har vi lært?

I 2017 er det 60 år siden Stein Rokkan, Henry Valen og deres medarbeidere gjennomførte den første norske valgundersøkelsen. Surveydelen av det opprinnelige forskningsopplegget er blitt stående som det varige resultatet gjennom Valgforskningsprogrammet ved Institutt for samfunnsforskning. I dag er dette ett av norsk samfunnsforsknings lengstvarende forskningsprosjekter, bestående av 14 landsrepresentative undersøkelser med mer enn 25 000 intervjuer. I denne artikkelen gis det en oversikt over dette forskningsprogrammet med vekt på sentrale teoretiske perspektiver og tolkningsrammer. Artikkelen gir gjennom dette et bidrag til den statsvitenskapelige faghistorien.

 

Les mer

Publikasjoner